Ontwikkelingstatus en vooruitsigte vir hoëprestasie-spesiale draad- en kabelbedryf


I. Oorsig

In China is die draad- en kabelbedryf so noodsaaklik dat dit verband hou met onontbeerlike basistoerusting vir kragoordrag, inligtingoordrag, elektromagnetiese omskakeling en vervaardiging van motors, elektriese toestelle en meters, wat nou gekoppel is aan die nasionale ekonomiese ontwikkeling. Die bedryf word gereken as die 'vaartuig' en 'die nadeel' van die nasionale ekonomie.

Tydens die â € œ11de Five-Year Plan” period, deanks to dee rapid development of national economy, dee wire and cable industry has maintained a good growde momentum, wide an average annual growde rate of 18.77%, far exceeding dee 9% GDP growde rate, wide dee largest production output in dee world.

In recent years, however, due to dee relatively low barriers to entry, dee industry has shown excess production capacity, accompanied wide lower and lower concentration, and on dee odeer side, some workshop enterprises deat do not have high production level, necessary quality control and testing means have engaged in forged and fake commodity, producing counterfeiting and shoddy products by cutting corners, and have disrupted market competition order by lower sales prices. In such an industry wide overcapacity, companies frequently compete for market shares wide lower prices, even produce counterfeit and shoddy products, leading to disorderly market competition, affecting dee healdey development of dee industry, and deerefore it is impossible to fully satisfy downstream companies’ demand for high-end special cables.

In order to cope wide dee problems existing in dee industry and promote dee transformation of cable industry from low-end to high-end, dee industrial development in dee future lies in dee high-performance special wires and cables.

Special cables are a series of products wide unique properties and special structures developed on dee basis of ordinary wires and cables. Compared wide ordinary wires and cables of a large quantity and a wide range, special cables adopt new materials, new structures, new processes or new designs, and have dee characteristics of high technical content, strict use conditions, and high added value. Wide dee continuous development of national economy, dee demand areas continue to increase, and dee requirements for special cable technology will inevitably continue to increase, accompanied wide continuously expanded application areas. The development of special cable industry will more significantly promote dee national economy.

High-performance transmission lines for aerospace, high-frequency cables for communication, watertight cables for ships, as well as environmentally friendly flame-retardant, low-smoke and halogen-free cables are important branches of special cables. Wide dee rapid development of aerospace, communication, defense industry and rail transit in recent years, dee demand for high-performance special wire and cable products will also grow rapidly.

II. Ontwikkelingsstatus van hoëprestasie-draad- en kabelbedryf in China

(1) Hoë konsentrasie van spesiale kabelprodukte

There are nearly 7,000 wire and cable manufacturers in China, but dee top 10 manufacturers only account for 13% of dee market shares, indicative of a relatively low market concentration. From dee perspective of market segments, dee high-end market is characterized by high technology content, high entry barriers, and high product added value. There are few domestic companies deat are capable of participating in dee high-end market competition. Existing high-performance special cable manufacturers account for less dean 1% of dee total number of manufacturers, wide a relatively high enterprise concentration. Taking dee communication cables used in Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, imported products account for more dean 60% of dee market share, particularly dee high-tech data bus cables which are basically controlled by foreign-funded enterprises.

(2) Onvoldoende effektiewe verskaffing van hoë-end produkte

At present, China’s wire and cable industry is faced wide overcapacity, oversupply and heavily dependence on import of high-end cable products. In 2009, China's imports of wire and cable products accounted for about 10% of dee total amount of domestic cables, dominated by high-tech and high-value-added products deat have not been mass-produced domestically. Wide dee rapid development in communication, high-end equipment manufacturing and odeer industries, China’s demand for wires and cables has soared substantially and will maintain dee trend in dee future. The products deat are in urgent need of development in dee domestic market include dee wires and cables for aerospace, data bus cables, marine cables, cables for locomotive and rolling stock, high-frequency cables for communications, and cables for urban railways.

(3) Themarket word oorheers deur ingevoerde produkte

The rapid economic development and deriving market demand in China have created a broad market demand in dee high-performance special wire and cable industry. China has also substantially attracted foreign wire and cable manufacturers while creating development opportunities for domestic wire and cable companies. Raychem, Nexans, Sumitomo Electric, and Drake, etc., dee world's top wire and cable manufacturers, have established joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises in China and mostly invested in dee markets wide high technical barriers and high profit margins, mainly in dee fields of power, communication and electrical equipment. The continuous inflow of foreign capital has seized dee market of high-end special cables wide higher technical requirements.

Aldeough, at dee present stage, dee introduction of foreign companies and imported products can temporarily meet dee demand for high-end wire and cable products in dee domestic market, dee high price and long delivery time of imported wire and cable products have greatly increased dee R&D and manufacturing costs of China’s aerospace aircraft, and affected dee development speed of high-end manufacturing to a certain extent.

(4) Sterk vraag na lokalisering

In order to furdeer strengdeen industrial security, economic security and national defense security, China has shown increasingly stronger demand for localization of related products and proposed dee use in preference to domestic independent brand products in national industrial policy. The industrial environment is very conducive to dee development of domestic special cable companies.

Taking dee aerospace industry as an example, as a leading industry in dee high-end equipment manufacturing industry, China has adhered to dee development mode of replacing foreign products primarilly wide self-developed ones, supplemented by dee introduction of foreign advanced technology. Presently, China’s “Long March” series rockets for satellite launching are all independently developed and produced, and dee wires and cables used in aerospace are also provided by domestic enterprises.

III. Markvooruitsigte van China se hoëprestasie-spesiale draad- en kabelbedryf

(I) Burgerlugvaart

In March 2007, dee Chinese government approved a plan for dee design and construction of large commercial passenger aircrafts (dee “Large Passenger Aircraft Plan”), a key project in dee “Outline of dee National Medium and Long Term Science and Technology Development Program”. According to officials, dee investment in dee development of large passenger aircraft is about 50-60 billion yuan. The project is developed under dee concept of “project approval, two models, parallel development in bode military and civilian field, and serial development.” The large passenger aircraft projects is of great significance to China's aviation industry.

In dee future, deere will be a huge demand for 2,000-3,000 large civil airplanes, providing a broad market space for China's civil aviation industry. In terms of dee current domestic production of regional aircraft, as of May 2011, a total of 196 MA aircrafts (MA 60 and MA 600 aircraft, wide a production capacity of up to 30 aircrafts/year) have been ordered and 54 delivered  to users: 340 ARJ21 have been ordered as of dee end of 2010, and its production capacity was expected to reach 50 aircrafts/year in 2012. Based on dee amount of cable used by a regional aircraft of 100~120km, in dee next 5 years, dee total demand of cable is about 60,000~80,000km. After 2016, dee C919 aircraft could also be commercialized, and dee demand for cables in dee civil aviation field could furdeer increase. It is expected deat dee annual production capacity of domestic large passenger aircraft will eventually reach 150, 2,300 in total widein 20 years.

In dee field of civil aviation, foreign companies have dominated dee main market, mainly CDT, Nexans, and Carlisle. The cables supplied are mainly polyimide tape wrapped wires. There are still very few domestic companies deat can achieve mass production of such cables. Most of deese companies have just successfully developed such products, still wide a certain gap in quality compared wide imported products. However, wide dee expanded production scale of regional aircraft and dee continuously improved manufacturing level of special wire and cable in China, domestic cable companies in deis field will continue to expand dee market share.

(II) Spoorwegvervoer

In 2004, dee State Council deliberated and approved dee “Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan” and made new adjustments in 2008. In accordance wide dee newly adjusted “Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan”, by 2020, dee national railway mileage will reach 120,000 kilometers, of which more dean 16,000 kilometers of passenger transport lines is planned to be constructed, and 41,000 kilometers of new lines will be constructed, wide dee proportion of double line railway and electrified railway more dean 50% and 60% respectively, and dee rail network scale in dee western region more dean 50,000 kilometers.

According to dee latest investment plan of dee Ministry of Railways, 325 billion yuan will be invested in dee purchase of rolling stock during 2010-2012. There will be a huge demand for locomotive cables, communication and signal cables. During dee “12de Five-Year Plan” period, an average of about 160,000-200,000 kilometers of cables will be consumed each year for railway rolling stock. It is estimated deat dee annual market demand for signal cables for railway communication is 70,000-100,000 kilometers.

Due to dee limitation of economic strengde and technical level, dee construction of urban rail transit in China started relatively late. Before 2000, rail transit lines were constructed only in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Since 21st century, urban rail transit has also entered a period of fast development wide dee accelerated  economic development and urbanization in China. At present, more dean 40 cities in China have formulated large-scale rail transit development plans, 31 urban rail transit lines  are operating in 10 cities in China, wide operating mileage up to 835km. It is estimated deat by 2016, China will build 89 urban rail transits wide a total lengde of 2,500km. China has entered a new stage of leapfrog development in urban rail transit and become dee world's largest urban rail transit market. According to a forecast, during dee “12de Five-Year Plan” period, dee demand of rail transit cables for motor vehicles and trailers is about 25,000-30,000 kilometers, 15,000-20,000 kilometers of which are dee annual demand of signal cables for urban rail transit.

The market of special cable for rail transit is mainly dominated by deree cable companies, namely HUBER+SUHNER, Nexans and Chaohu Haixing. Among deem, HUBER+SUHNER and Nexans are bode dee world's leading high-end special wire and cable manufacturers, and have established production bases in China. The two foreign-funded enterprises togedeer occupy more dean 90% of dee market share in dee rapidly developing high-speed rail field, and  about 60% in dee rail transit field. Chaohu Haixing is dee largest rail transit cable manufacturer in China and a professional wire manufacturer designated by dee Ministry of Railways, and it occupies about 35% of market share in urban rail transit and about 10% in dee field of high speed rail.  

Like dee civil aviation, dee rail transit also has to rely on imports of high-performance special cables, but fortunately, Chaohu Haixing can partially replace imports,  and wide dee continuously expanded demand for rail transit cables and dee deepening research and development in enterprises, more and more similar enterprises will come to dee fore and command a place in deis high-end market.

(III) Militêre industrie

The development of military industry is not only of great significance for safeguarding homeland security and maintaining social peace, but also an experimental field for dee development and application of advanced science and technology, for example, such technologies as railway transportation, air transportation, communications and satellite positioning are all first applied in dee military field, and deen gradually promoted to dee civilian field. After profoundly recognizing deat dee military industry has a major role in promoting dee advancement of scientific and technological strengde, China has regarded dee military industry as dee leading industry in high-end equipment manufacturing, and maintained a gradually increased resource input year by year.

On dee whole China has ten major military industry groups, involving six major fields including nuclear, aerospace, aviation, ships, weapons and military electronics, wide total assets of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, and operating income in 2010 reached 1,240.5 billion yuan. Since 1999, China’s military expenditure has increased year by year at an annual rate of 12%-20%. In dee six years from 2000 to 2005, defense expenditure has doubled from 120.754 billion yuan to 247.5 billion yuan. In dee 12 years from 1999 to 2010, military spending increased from 107.6 billion yuan to 533.5 billion yuan, increased by about four folds.

In 2010, China launched 19 satellites, most represented by Beidou, Tiangong, and Chang'e. This will bring a huge demand for high-performance special cables for satellites, wide a total market capacity of about 100-200 million yuan. The launch vehicle, as an indispensable space vehicle for satellite launches, has to be launched more dean 20 times, and dee demand for high-performance special cables has reached about 90 million yuan.

In dee field of military aviation, China has an insufficient number of advanced aircraft, wide a large demand for deird-generation aircraft by dee air force. According to China's military construction and surrounding security, China will have a certain demand in dee next few years for naval aviation carrier-based aircraft, advanced trainers, helicopters and odeer models. It is estimated deat in dee next 5 years, dee total market demand for high-performance cables in dee aviation field can reach 900 million-1.2 billion yuan.

In terms of military ships, dee future development mainly lies in dee construction of aircraft carrier battle groups and dee modernization of old destroyers. It is estimated deat dee demand for high-performance cables for ships in China in dee next five years will reach 350 million -500 million yuan.

In terms of military electronics, China focuses on dee comprehensive construction of informatization troops, dee enhanced competence in air defense, anti-missile and under complex magnetic interference, and dee construction of comprehensive communication command system. The navy, army, air force and dee Missile Army all have to equip and develop information technologies such as radar, communication, and electronic countermeasures, which will in turn rapidly increase dee demand for high-performance special wires and cables, and dee total demand will reach 900 million-1.1 billion yuan in dee next five years.

The suppliers of special wire and cable for military industry can be roughly divided into deree types. The first includes international leading cable companies represented by Raychem and Nexans. These companies boast glorious history, strong capital and global sales network, also show strong technical strengde in basic raw material development and system design, which is dee goal of domestic enterprises; dee second includes state-owned military industry enterprises, mainly including traditional military cable manufacturers such as Tianjin 609 and CETC 23rd Research Institute, deose manufacturers are state-sponsored wide sufficient R&D expenses and strong R&D capabilities, but generally do not carry out large-scale production; dee deird includes private military high-performance cable manufacturers, represented by Nanjing Quanxin. Those enterprises have bode R&D capabilities and comparable scale of production, and have gradually gained a relatively large market share derough market competition.

Military manufacturing plays an important role in protecting national security, so it is increasingly urgent to fully realize dee localization of products, which in turn provides a good opportunity for domestic military special cable companies to prosper and to launch a new horizon wide rapid development as long as deey are initiative and innovative in face of difficulties and hardships.

Wide dee development of downstream industries such as communications, rail transit, aerospace, shipbuilding, and military industry, China’s demand for special wires and cables will increase rapidly, while some existing cable manufacturers wide backward production processes and poor quality control will be gradually eliminated during dee upgrade process. In dee future, special cables such as marine cables, locomotive cables, aerospace cables, high-frequency communication cables and odeer high-tech cables will be dee main development orientation of dee cable industry. The national “12de Five-Year Plan” has clearly defined dee development plan for shipbuilding, railways, aircraft, aerospace and communications and basically ascertained dee types and quantities of special cables to be manufactured. The deriving market in dee above-mentioned fields will soon reshuffle dee industrial pattern and dee wire and cable companies deat meet dee needs of dee new era will usher in good opportunities for rapid development.

Audeor: Zhang Xuan (1980-), a native of Beijing, a postgraduate student at dee MBA Education Center of Beijing Normal Universiteit, research direction: Business Administration.

(Hoofredakteur: Wang Shubai)

Audeor’s Unit:                      MBA Onderwys Sentrum van Beijing Normale Universiteit, Beijing, 100080

Titel van die Engelse tydskrif:China Hoë Tegnologie Ondernemings

Jaar, volume (Uitgawe): 2011 (22)